{"id":3327,"date":"2025-09-22T14:18:35","date_gmt":"2025-09-22T14:18:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.tradeiators.com\/?p=3327"},"modified":"2025-09-22T14:26:45","modified_gmt":"2025-09-22T14:26:45","slug":"le-sp-500-peut-il-poursuivre-sa-hausse-malgre-les-baisses-de-taux-et-le-chaos-commercial","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.tradeiators.com\/fr\/le-sp-500-peut-il-poursuivre-sa-hausse-malgre-les-baisses-de-taux-et-le-chaos-commercial\/","title":{"rendered":"Le S&#038;P 500 peut-il poursuivre sa hausse malgr\u00e9 les baisses de taux et le chaos commercial ?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p data-start=\"180\" data-end=\"326\">Le <strong data-start=\"199\" data-end=\"210\">S&amp;P 500<\/strong> a progress\u00e9 de <strong data-start=\"226\" data-end=\"266\">13 % depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025<\/strong>, atteignant de nouveaux sommets historiques \u00e0 la cl\u00f4ture.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"328\" data-end=\"551\">Cette performance a surpris de nombreux analystes, d\u2019autant plus que le pr\u00e9sident Donald Trump a impos\u00e9 il y a quelques mois des droits de douane g\u00e9n\u00e9ralis\u00e9s, initialement per\u00e7us comme un facteur n\u00e9gatif pour <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradeiators.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">les march\u00e9s<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"553\" data-end=\"818\">Pourtant, l\u2019\u00e9conomie am\u00e9ricaine a montr\u00e9 une r\u00e9silience relative, soutenue par une forte augmentation des d\u00e9penses dans les technologies li\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019intelligence artificielle, qui ont ajout\u00e9 plus d\u2019un point de pourcentage \u00e0 la croissance du PIB au premier semestre.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"820\" data-end=\"944\">Les r\u00e9sultats des entreprises se sont \u00e9galement r\u00e9v\u00e9l\u00e9s meilleurs que pr\u00e9vu, en particulier dans le secteur technologique.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"946\" data-end=\"1300\">Historiquement, les march\u00e9s boursiers tendent \u00e0 progresser pendant les phases d\u2019assouplissement mon\u00e9taire. La <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradeiators.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">R\u00e9serve f\u00e9d\u00e9rale<\/a> a r\u00e9cemment abaiss\u00e9 son taux directeur de <strong data-start=\"1115\" data-end=\"1136\">25 points de base<\/strong>, sa premi\u00e8re r\u00e9duction depuis d\u00e9cembre 2024, apr\u00e8s une pause de neuf mois li\u00e9e \u00e0 l\u2019incertitude entourant la politique commerciale de l\u2019administration am\u00e9ricaine.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1302\" data-end=\"1369\">La Fed a adopt\u00e9 une approche prudente, \u00e9quilibrant deux risques :<\/p>\n<ul data-start=\"1370\" data-end=\"1468\">\n<li data-start=\"1370\" data-end=\"1424\">\n<p data-start=\"1372\" data-end=\"1424\">Une hausse de l\u2019inflation due aux droits de douane<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<li data-start=\"1425\" data-end=\"1468\">\n<p data-start=\"1427\" data-end=\"1468\">Un affaiblissement du march\u00e9 du travail<\/p>\n<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p data-start=\"1470\" data-end=\"1662\">Avec une cr\u00e9ation d\u2019emplois mensuelle moyenne limit\u00e9e \u00e0 27 000 entre mai et ao\u00fbt \u2014 la pire p\u00e9riode depuis 2010 (hors pand\u00e9mie) \u2014 l\u2019option de l\u2019assouplissement mon\u00e9taire a fini par s\u2019imposer.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1664\" data-end=\"1914\">L\u2019histoire conforte ce choix : depuis 1985, lors des huit \u00e9pisodes o\u00f9 la Fed a baiss\u00e9 ses taux apr\u00e8s au moins six mois de stabilit\u00e9, le <strong data-start=\"1800\" data-end=\"1811\">S&amp;P 500<\/strong> a g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9 un <strong data-start=\"1824\" data-end=\"1858\">rendement annuel moyen de 13 %<\/strong>. Hors r\u00e9cession, ce rendement moyen est mont\u00e9 \u00e0 16 %.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"1916\" data-end=\"2168\">Partant de la cl\u00f4ture de l\u2019indice \u00e0 <strong data-start=\"1952\" data-end=\"1984\">6 600 points le 17 septembre<\/strong>, un retour conforme \u00e0 la moyenne historique porterait le S&amp;P 500 \u00e0 <strong data-start=\"2052\" data-end=\"2068\">7 458 points<\/strong> sur l\u2019ann\u00e9e \u00e0 venir, soit une hausse d\u2019environ 12 % par rapport au niveau actuel de 6 632 points.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2170\" data-end=\"2611\">N\u00e9anmoins, l\u2019optimisme de Wall Street doit \u00eatre nuanc\u00e9. <strong data-start=\"2226\" data-end=\"2246\">FactSet Research<\/strong> pr\u00e9voit que l\u2019indice atteindra <strong data-start=\"2278\" data-end=\"2294\">7 310 points<\/strong> d\u2019ici 12 mois, soit un gain de 10 %. La croissance des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices des entreprises devrait ralentir au second semestre 2025, en raison de la contraction des marges provoqu\u00e9e par les droits de douane et d\u2019une inflation en acc\u00e9l\u00e9ration, pass\u00e9e de 2,8 % en mai \u00e0 3,1 % en ao\u00fbt selon l\u2019indice des prix \u00e0 la consommation.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"2613\" data-end=\"3027\">Parall\u00e8lement, l\u2019indice se n\u00e9gocie actuellement \u00e0 <strong data-start=\"2663\" data-end=\"2704\">22,5 fois les b\u00e9n\u00e9fices pr\u00e9visionnels<\/strong>, un niveau historiquement \u00e9lev\u00e9 observ\u00e9 seulement lors de la bulle Internet et de la pand\u00e9mie \u2014 deux \u00e9pisodes suivis de corrections brutales. M\u00eame si l\u2019histoire ne se r\u00e9p\u00e8te pas forc\u00e9ment, le march\u00e9 reste vuln\u00e9rable \u00e0 une d\u00e9gradation des perspectives \u00e9conomiques ou \u00e0 des r\u00e9sultats d\u2019entreprises inf\u00e9rieurs aux attentes.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3029\" data-end=\"3497\">Dans ce contexte, les <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tradeiators.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">investisseurs<\/a> devraient \u00e9viter les titres sur\u00e9valu\u00e9s, notamment ceux qui n\u2019affichent pas encore de rentabilit\u00e9 claire. Il est pr\u00e9f\u00e9rable de privil\u00e9gier les entreprises offrant des valorisations raisonnables et un potentiel de croissance durable des b\u00e9n\u00e9fices sur cinq ans. De plus, renforcer les positions de liquidit\u00e9s dans les portefeuilles pourrait permettre de profiter d\u2019une \u00e9ventuelle correction pour entrer \u00e0 des niveaux plus attractifs.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3499\" data-end=\"3864\"><strong data-start=\"3499\" data-end=\"3566\">Le moment est-il opportun pour acheter des actions du S&amp;P 500 ?<\/strong><br data-start=\"3566\" data-end=\"3569\" \/>Avant d\u2019investir, il est essentiel d\u2019\u00e9valuer la conjoncture \u00e9conomique globale, l\u2019orientation de la politique mon\u00e9taire et les perspectives b\u00e9n\u00e9ficiaires des entreprises. Le S&amp;P 500 reste une option valable de diversification, mais la prudence s\u2019impose dans les conditions actuelles du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3866\" data-end=\"4013\"><strong data-start=\"3866\" data-end=\"3884\">\u00c0 lire aussi :<\/strong><\/p>\n<p data-start=\"3866\" data-end=\"4013\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.tradeiators.com\/fr\/mises-a-jour-en-direct-sur-les-droits-de-douane-de-trump-demande-daudience-durgence-a-la-cour-supreme-aucun-allegement-pour-linde\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Mises \u00e0 jour en direct sur les droits de douane de Trump : session d\u2019urgence \u00e0 la Cour supr\u00eame, aucun all\u00e8gement pour l\u2019Inde<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le S&amp;P 500 a progress\u00e9 de 13 % depuis le d\u00e9but de l\u2019ann\u00e9e 2025, atteignant de nouveaux sommets historiques \u00e0 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":3307,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"default","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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