The September jobs report is scheduled for release on Thursday, marking the first set of economic data to appear following the end of the government shutdown.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced on Friday that reports delayed by the shutdown will begin rolling out next week, redirecting Wall Street’s attention toward employment, inflation, and other key economic indicators.
The nonfarm payrolls report for September will be published at 8:30 a.m. on Thursday, according to an update issued by the bureau. The following day, the BLS will release the real earnings report that typically accompanies the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which was not issued in October due to the absence of average hourly earnings data.
During the shutdown, the CPI report for September was the only official economic data released, given its role in calculating Social Security cost-of-living adjustments.
Economists expect the upcoming “Employment Situation” report to include only nonfarm payroll figures, with no unemployment rate, since the latter relies on a household survey that cannot be easily conducted retroactively.
The Department of Commerce has also not yet issued an updated publication schedule, though revisions are anticipated soon.
This uncertainty surrounding data release timelines has intensified tensions among Federal Reserve policymakers and investors. Shruti Mishra, an economist at Bank of America, noted that the lack of timely official data forced markets and the Fed to rely on alternative sources to form an initial economic picture, as attention now shifts back to the backlog of delayed releases.
The shutdown not only halted data publication but also complicated the process of resuming it. The CPI report for October may not be released due to the BLS’s reliance on in-person data collection, which cannot be conducted retroactively. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre warned of potential “missing data,” though Mishra said she did not expect the report to be released regardless.
The BLS has urged patience as it completes data collection and establishes revised release dates, while the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) confirmed it is coordinating with other agencies to finalize updated timelines as soon as they are ready.
Politically, several Democratic lawmakers have expressed frustration, calling on the administration to clarify the reasons behind the data delays. They argued that government shutdowns do not fundamentally prevent the collection or release of economic data. Citing the 2013 shutdown, after which release schedules were promptly provided, they hinted that the administration may be intentionally restricting data flow. They warned that the absence of critical economic information undermines businesses and policymakers, urging the administration to publish as much delayed data as possible before the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.
As questions linger over the timing of new releases, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer emphasized that employment and price data must be reviewed for accuracy before publication. She said the BLS will provide a clear timeline once reviews are complete, stressing the importance of reliable figures.
Andrew Hollenhorst, an economist at Citigroup, predicted that the Fed will likely receive the September, October, and November jobs reports before its December 9–10 policy meeting. Although the Fed had previously hinted at a possible rate cut in December, several officials have recently expressed doubts about the need for further easing.
In addition to employment and inflation data, the BLS releases figures on import and export prices, job openings, productivity, and more, while the Department of Labor issues weekly unemployment claims.
The Department of Commerce handles data on personal income and spending—including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—as well as GDP figures. The PCE report for October is scheduled for release on November 26. Meanwhile, the Census Bureau continues to produce data on retail sales, trade balances, and durable goods.
